알트만 Z-스코어 계산기
5개 비율 알트만 Z-스코어 모델로 파산 위험을 예측하세요.
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작동 방식
Enter seven financial metrics from a company's balance sheet and income statement: Working Capital, Total Assets, Retained Earnings, EBIT, Market Value of Equity, Book Value of Total Liabilities, and Total Sales. Select the appropriate model based on company type: public manufacturing, private company, or non manufacturing service firms. Pull figures from the most recent annual 10 K or audited financial statements. Working capital equals current assets minus current liabilities. Market value of equity for public firms is shares outstanding times share price on the measurement date. Use the same fiscal year end for all inputs so ratios align on one reporting period. Private company screens use book equity in place of market cap in the X4 ratio with different coefficient weights.
The calculator computes five financial ratios and applies Altman's weighted coefficients to produce a Z Score. Each ratio's contribution to the final score is displayed in the breakdown table. The score is classified into three zones: Safe Zone (Z above 3.0), Grey Zone (1.8 to 3.0), and Distress Zone (below 1.8). Review which ratios drag the score down to identify specific financial weaknesses. Compare year over year Z Scores from consecutive 10 K filings to detect deteriorating trends early. A firm sliding from safe to grey over two years warrants deeper credit review even if it still avoids distress classification today. Bond holders and equity deep value investors use the breakdown to see whether liquidity, leverage, or profitability drives weakness.
weaknesses. Compare year over year Z Scores from consecutive 10 K filings to detect deteriorating trends early. A firm sliding from safe to grey over two years warrants deeper credit review even if it still avoids distress classification today. Bond holders and equity deep value investors use the breakdown to see whether liquidity, leverage, or profitability drives weakness.
입력값이 변경될 때마다 알트만 Z-스코어 계산기을(를) 사용하세요: 시장 변동, 새로운 기여금 또는 수정된 개인 가정 후. 소프트웨어 설치 없이 빠른 재실행을 위해 페이지를 북마크하세요.
단계별 안내
- 알트만 Z-스코어 계산기을(를) 열고 현재 입력값을 입력하세요.
- 계산된 출력과 요약 테이블을 검토하세요.
- 가정을 조정하고 시나리오를 나란히 비교하세요.
실전 예제
Enter seven financial metrics from a company's balance sheet and income statement: Working Capital, Total Assets, Retained Earnings, EBIT, Market Value of Equity, Book Value of Total Liabilities, and Total Sales. Enter the sample inputs described in How it works to reproduce the scenario step by step.
한 번에 하나의 입력을 조정하여 민감도를 확인하세요. 알트만 Z-스코어 계산기은(는) 즉시 업데이트되므로 행동하기 전에 낙관적 및 보수적 가정을 스트레스 테스트할 수 있습니다.
이 계산기를 사용할 때
Reach for Altman Z-Score Calculator when predict bankruptcy risk using the 5-ratio altman z-score model.. It suits quick what if analysis before trades, allocation changes, or plan updates.
결정이 세금, 유동성 또는 하나의 공식이 포착하는 것 이상의 다년 전망을 포괄할 때 관련 도구와 함께 사용하세요.
흔한 실수
입력 단위나 오래된 시장 가격을 확인하지 않고 출력을 복사하는 것은 알트만 Z-스코어 계산기에서 흔한 오류입니다. 행동하기 전에 티커, 백분율 및 날짜를 확인하세요.
단일 기준 시나리오만 실행하면 꼬리 위험을 무시합니다. 보수적 입력으로 스트레스 테스트하고 결정이 중요할 때 아래 나열된 관련 도구와 비교하세요.
공식
Z = 1.2×X1 + 1.4×X2 + 3.3×X3 + 0.6×X4 + 1.0×X5
X1 = Working Capital / Total Assets
X2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets
X3 = EBIT / Total Assets
X4 = Market Cap / Total Liabilities
X5 = Sales / Total Assets
Z > 3.0: Safe zone
1.8 < Z < 3.0: Grey zone
Z < 1.8: Distress zone
Original Altman Z Score (1968) for public manufacturing companies. For private companies, use the Z prime Score model with different coefficients. Not applicable to financial firms or utilities. Distress zone does not guarantee bankruptcy; grey zone warrants deeper due diligence. Recompute after restatements or material acquisitions. Compare models when sector classification is ambiguous between manufacturing and services.
제한 사항 및 가정
Original Altman Z Score (1968) for public manufacturing companies. For private companies, use the Z prime Score model with different coefficients. Not applicable to financial firms or utilities. Distress zone does not guarantee bankruptcy; grey zone warrants deeper due diligence. Recompute after restatements or material acquisitions. Compare models when sector classification is ambiguous between manufacturing and services. Altman Z-Score Calculator does not replace personalized advice. Fees, slippage, account specific rules, and behavioral constraints may change real world outcomes.
주요 용어
- What is the Altman Z-Score
- The Altman Z Score is a formula that predicts the probability of a company going bankrupt within two years.
- What is the difference between the three models
- The original 1968 formula was designed for public manufacturing companies.
- 모델 가정
- Working Capital / Total Assets measures liquidity.
대안 비교
Pair with Sharpe and Sortino Ratio for portfolio risk context when holding distressed names. Use those calculators when altman z-score calculator alone does not capture the full decision.
portfolios.tools의 내부 링크는 계산기 체인을 도와줍니다: 먼저 알트만 Z-스코어 계산기을(를) 실행한 다음, 아래 관련 섹션의 전문 도구로 엣지 케이스를 검증하세요.
FAQ
What is the Altman Z-Score?
The Altman Z Score is a formula that predicts the probability of a company going bankrupt within two years. It combines five financial ratios: liquidity, profitability, leverage, solvency, and activity into a single score. A score below 1.8 signals high bankruptcy risk, while above 3.0 indicates financial health. Originally developed from a sample of manufacturing firms in the 1960s. The score compresses multidimensional balance sheet stress into one number for quick screening across large watchlists. It does not replace cash flow analysis, covenant review, or management quality assessment. Distressed debt investors sometimes buy names in grey zone when they believe recovery exceeds market pricing of default risk.
What is the difference between the three models?
The original 1968 formula was designed for public manufacturing companies. For private companies, Altman replaced market value of equity with book value of equity and adjusted the coefficients. The non manufacturing model (1993) drops the Sales/Total Assets ratio and uses different weights suitable for service and non industrial firms. Choose the model that matches your company type for accurate classification. Using the public manufacturing model on a asset light software company misstates X5 and can falsely inflate or deflate the score. International filers should map local GAAP line items to the inputs this tool expects before comparing scores across borders.
What do the five ratios measure?
Working Capital / Total Assets measures liquidity. Retained Earnings / Total Assets captures cumulative profitability. EBIT / Total Assets shows operating efficiency. Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities reflects solvency and market sentiment. Sales / Total Assets measures asset turnover. Each ratio captures a different dimension of financial health. Weakness in any single ratio can pull the score into the grey zone. X4 uses market cap for public firms and book equity for private models. Negative working capital drags X1 sharply even when cash flow remains positive for subscription businesses with deferred revenue. Low retained earnings on young growth firms penalizes X2 despite strong forward prospects.
Does the Z-Score work for all types of companies?
The Z Score works best for manufacturing and industrial firms. It is less reliable for financial companies (banks, insurance), startups with no earnings history, and service companies with few tangible assets. Use the non manufacturing model for service firms. Banks and insurers require specialized models because their balance sheet structure differs fundamentally from industrial companies. Distressed companies with negative working capital often score in grey zone despite imminent liquidity. REITs and MLPs need sector specific interpretation because leverage norms differ from industrial peers. Always read footnotes for off balance sheet obligations that ratios omit.
How far into the future can the Z-Score predict?
The score is most accurate for a 1 to 2 year horizon. Altman's original study showed 72% accuracy in predicting bankruptcy one year ahead, dropping to about 48% at two years. It should be used as one indicator among many, not a standalone decision tool. Pair with interest coverage, debt maturity profile, and cash flow analysis for credit decisions. Bond investors often combine Z Score with credit ratings for independent verification. A rising score after restructuring may lag reality if equity rally lifts X4 before operations improve. Recompute after major acquisitions because goodwill and new debt reshape all five ratios simultaneously.
휴대폰이나 태블릿에서 알트만 Z-스코어 계산기을(를) 사용할 수 있나요?
예. 이 도구는 데스크톱과 동일한 공식으로 모바일 브라우저에서 완전히 실행됩니다. 선택적 localStorage는 브라우저 설정에서 활성화된 경우 기기에 입력값을 기억할 수 있습니다.
알트만 Z-스코어 계산기을(를) 사용할 때 내 데이터는 어디에 저장되나요?
당사 서버 어디에도 없습니다. 계산은 브라우저에서 로컬로 실행됩니다. 선택적 localStorage는 기기에서만 양식 필드를 저장하며 네트워크를 통해 포트폴리오 번호를 전송하지 않습니다.
세금 또는 법적 결정에 알트만 Z-스코어 계산기에 의존해야 하나요?
아니요. 이 도구는 교육용 수학만 제공합니다. 세법, 계좌 규칙 및 개인 상황은 다양합니다. 중대한 결과를 초래하는 거래 전에 자격을 갖춘 세무 또는 법률 전문가와 상담하세요.
관련 도구
Pair with Sharpe and Sortino Ratio for portfolio risk context when holding distressed names. Maximum Drawdown Calc shows historical loss severity for comparison. Dividend Discount Model helps value survivors after screening out distress zone companies. Bond YTM Calculator adds fixed income credit context alongside equity distress screening on portfolios.tools.