Permanent Portfolio Backtester Calculator

Enter starting value, allocation weights for stocks, bonds, gold, and cash summing to one hundred percent, rebalancing frequency, and horizon years. Permanent Portfolio uses twenty five percent each in four asset classes designed for different economic regimes. Harry Browne permanent portfolio targets equal weight stocks bonds gold cash for all weather behavior across inflation growth deflation recession quadrants. Equal weight twenty five percent four asset mix designed for unknown future economic regime without forecast requirement. Backtest equal weight four asset permanent portfolio against your current allocation through same historical window to see CAGR and max drawdown tradeoff before switching strategy. Equal weight twenty five percent four asset mix targets all weather behavior without requiring accurate macro regime forecast before implementation.

Review ending value, compound annual growth rate, maximum drawdown, and year by year allocation drift versus targets. Rebalancing sells winners and buys laggards which can boost risk adjusted returns in volatile multi asset portfolios. Annual rebalance enforces buy low sell high across sleeves without forecasting. Rebalancing discipline sells best performing sleeve each period which feels contrarian during extended equity bull markets. Annual rebalance sells best performing sleeve which feels uncomfortable during extended equity bull market but enforces mechanical discipline. Rebalancing frequency annual versus quarterly changes turnover and historical path in permanent portfolio backtest slightly. Annual rebalance sells best performing sleeve which feels contrarian during extended equity bull market momentum phases emotionally. Cash sleeve drag in low rate eras reduces total return versus bond heavy alternative though crisis liquidity benefit remains in classic Browne design. Harry Browne original four twenty five allocations among stocks bonds cash gold aimed for one asset class thriving in each macro regime stagflation growth deflation recession. Rebalancing drift bands prevent transaction costs from daily noise while ensuring gold and bond sleeves replenish after equity bull run concentrates risk in single asset. Real return after inflation on permanent portfolio historically smoother but lower CAGR than equity heavy alternative over full century data with lower maximum drawdown depth. Gold sleeve provides crisis hedge when real rates fall and equity bond correlation spikes positive simultaneously during liquidity shock episodes rare but devastating to traditional sixty forty portfolio without alternative asset diversifier included in strategic allocation policy statement document.

Harry Browne designed the permanent portfolio for all economic seasons: stocks for growth, bonds for deflation, gold for inflation, cash for recession. Gold sleeve provides crisis hedge when real rates fall and equity bond correlation spikes positive during liquidity shock episodes. Rebalancing drift bands prevent transaction costs from daily noise while ensuring gold and bond sleeves replenish after equity bull run concentrates risk in a single asset class.

Use Permanent Portfolio Backtester whenever inputs change: after market moves, new contributions, or revised personal assumptions. Bookmark the page for quick reruns without installing software.

Enter starting value, allocation weights for stocks, bonds, gold, and cash summing to one hundred percent, rebalancing frequency, and horizon years. Enter the sample inputs described in How it works to reproduce the scenario step by step.

Adjust one input at a time to see sensitivity. Permanent Portfolio Backtester updates instantly so you can stress test optimistic and conservative assumptions before acting.

Reach for Permanent Portfolio Backtester when test harry browne 25/25/25/25 allocation with bundled historical data.. It suits quick what if analysis before trades, allocation changes, or plan updates.

Pair with related tools when the decision spans taxes, liquidity, or multi year projections beyond what one formula captures.

Copying outputs without checking input units or stale market prices is a frequent error with Permanent Portfolio Backtester. Confirm tickers, percentages, and dates before acting.

Running a single baseline scenario ignores tail risks. Stress test with conservative inputs and compare against related tools listed below when the decision is material.

Rebalances to target weights at selected frequency. Uses bundled historical monthly returns for four asset classes. Rebalance at chosen frequency. Historical returns bundled not guaranteed forward. Historical simulation not forward guarantee. Expense ratios on ETFs excluded. Gold sleeve controversy among modern Bogleheads does not eliminate historical crisis period diversification in bundled data. Educational estimates only not personalized advice consult qualified professional before major financial decisions. Educational estimates only not personalized advice consult qualified professional before major financial decisions. Educational estimates only not personalized advice consult qualified professional before major financial decisions. Educational estimates only not personalized advice consult qualified professional before major financial decisions. Educational estimates only not personalized advice consult qualified professional before major financial decisions. Permanent Portfolio Backtester does not replace personalized advice. Fees, slippage, account specific rules, and behavioral constraints may change real world outcomes.

Explore alternative weights with Risk Parity Allocator and decade stress with Lost Decade Backtester on portfolios. Use those calculators when permanent portfolio backtester alone does not capture the full decision.

Internal links on portfolios.tools help you chain calculators: run Permanent Portfolio Backtester first, then validate edge cases with a specialized tool from the related section below.