MRR Run Rate Projector
Project monthly recurring revenue at 12, 24, and 36 months using constant growth and revenue churn assumptions.
How the MRR scenario works
Enter current monthly recurring revenue, a monthly growth rate, and monthly revenue churn. The raw projection compounds growth alone. The adjusted projection compounds the additive factor formed by growth minus churn.
At each month, both percentages apply to the opening MRR. Growth is applied before the entered revenue churn. The projector shows MRR at months 12, 24, and 36, plus each month from 0 through 36.
Annual run rate at each displayed horizon is twelve times the adjusted MRR at that month. It annualizes a snapshot and does not total revenue collected or recognized over the year.
Try different monthly growth and revenue churn assumptions to compare paths. Treat the output as a constant rate scenario because the tool does not model monthly customer or contract changes.
Step by step
- Enter starting MRR and monthly growth and revenue churn percentages.
- Review raw MRR and churn adjusted MRR in the month 0 to 36 trajectory.
- Compare MRR and annual run rate at months 12, 24, and 36.
Worked example
Example inputs: starting MRR of 10,000 USD, monthly growth of 5%, and monthly revenue churn of 2%.
At month 12, the raw growth path is 17,958.56 USD MRR. Using the additive factor 1 + 5% − 2%, the churn adjusted path is 14,257.61 USD MRR and its annual run rate is 171,091.31 USD. These are scenario values, not collected revenue.
When to use this projector
Use this projector to compare a starting MRR under monthly growth and revenue churn assumptions. The month 0 to 36 trajectory makes the selected rates and their compounded effect visible.
Pair the scenario with a separate cash runway or unit economics analysis when those questions matter. The projector does not evaluate customer acquisition, profitability, or cash needs.
Common input mistakes
Enter both rates as monthly percentages: 5 means 5% per month, not 0.05%. Revenue churn is measured against opening MRR, not the share of customers that leave.
Do not read annual run rate as revenue earned during the next twelve months. It is a snapshot multiplied by twelve. A negative adjusted factor is outside the model and is rejected rather than set to zero.
Monthly projection formulas
Monthly growth fraction g = monthly growth percentage ÷ 100
Monthly revenue churn fraction c = monthly revenue churn percentage ÷ 100
Raw MRR at month m = starting MRR × (1 + g)^m
Churn adjusted MRR at month m = starting MRR × (1 + g − c)^m
Annual run rate at month m = 12 × churn adjusted MRR at month m
Break even churn = monthly growth percentage, when growth is between 0% and 100%
Both entered rates apply to opening MRR for each month, with growth before revenue churn. The adjusted path uses the additive factor 1 + g − c, not (1 + g) × (1 − c). Annual run rate is twelve times MRR at that month, not cumulative revenue. The trajectory includes month 0 through month 36; the projection table shows months 12, 24, and 36.
Model limits and assumptions
This is a constant rate scenario, not a forecast or an accounting report. It starts from one MRR amount and does not model customer counts, new sales, expansion events, contract timing, cancellations by cohort, seasonality, billing schedules, or changes in growth and churn. Both monthly rates apply to opening MRR, with growth before churn, using the additive factor 1 + g − c. The churn adjusted MRR cannot be interpreted as cash collected or revenue recognized. Annual run rate is twelve times a displayed MRR point, not cumulative revenue or future contract value. A zero starting MRR remains zero because the model adds no new dollar amount.
Key terms
- Monthly recurring revenue, MRR
- Monthly recurring revenue measured at a point in time. It is a monthly amount, not total cash collected during the month.
- Annual run rate, ARR
- A point in time annualization calculated as twelve times MRR. It is not cumulative recognized revenue or a promise of future revenue.
- Monthly revenue churn
- The monthly revenue reduction entered as a percentage of opening MRR. It is distinct from the percentage of customers who cancel.
Related business measures
Burn Rate Runway models cash runway from monthly net burn. LTV CAC Ratio compares customer lifetime value with acquisition cost. Use them for questions this MRR scenario does not answer.
Use this projector to test a recurring revenue path, then review cash runway and unit economics separately. The tools use different inputs and do not share a forecast.
FAQ
How do MRR and ARR run rate differ?
MRR is a monthly recurring revenue measure. ARR run rate is a snapshot calculated as the MRR at one point multiplied by twelve. It is not twelve months of recognized or collected revenue, nor a guarantee of future contracts.
What monthly growth rate should I enter?
Enter the percentage change in MRR for one month before the separate revenue churn assumption. This is a scenario input, not a measured growth forecast. If growth is negative, only a nonnegative churn rate up to 100% can be entered.
What does break even churn mean here?
The break even churn value equals the entered monthly growth rate only when that rate is between 0% and 100%. Under this additive model, equal growth and churn leave adjusted MRR unchanged. With negative growth, no nonnegative churn rate can offset the decline, so the break even value is not shown.
Why are raw and churn adjusted MRR different?
The raw path compounds monthly growth without revenue churn. The adjusted path uses the additive monthly factor 1 + growth − churn. Growth is applied before the entered churn, and both percentages are measured against the opening MRR. This differs from a multiplicative growth then retention formula.
Can I model negative growth or a zero factor?
Yes. Growth below zero is accepted down to negative 100% if the adjusted monthly factor remains nonnegative. A negative factor is invalid and is not clamped. A factor of zero takes the adjusted path to zero after the first month.
Related tools
Burn Rate Runway models cash runway from burn and available cash. LTV CAC Ratio compares customer lifetime value with acquisition cost. Neither tool uses this projector’s MRR path as an automatic input.