Earnings Surprise Tracker
Track EPS beats and misses quarter by quarter. Calculate surprise percentages, streak counts, and average surprise magnitude — all in your browser.
How It Works
The Earnings Surprise Tracker compares the consensus analyst EPS estimate with the actual reported EPS for each quarter. The surprise percentage shows how much the company exceeded or fell short of expectations — a key signal for earnings momentum.
Enter the estimated and actual EPS for each quarter. The tool computes the surprise percentage, categorizes the magnitude (Inline, Slight, Significant, or Massive), and tracks consecutive beat/miss streaks. The average surprise metric gives you a quick read on whether the company consistently surprises to the upside or downside.
The Formula
surprise% = (actual_eps − estimated_eps) / |estimated_eps| × 100
if |surprise%| ≤ 2: category = Inline
elif |surprise%| ≤ 10: category = Slight Surprise
elif |surprise%| ≤ 25: category = Significant Surprise
else: category = Massive Surprise
beat_streak = consecutive quarters where actual > estimated
miss_streak = consecutive quarters where actual < estimated
avg_surprise = Σ(surprise%) / n
Surprise percentage uses |estimated EPS| as denominator to handle negative estimates. Streaks count from most recent quarter backward.
FAQ
What is an earnings surprise?
An earnings surprise occurs when a company reports EPS that differs from the consensus analyst estimate. A positive surprise (beat) means actual EPS exceeded estimates; a negative surprise (miss) means actual EPS fell below estimates.
How is the surprise percentage calculated?
Surprise % = (Actual EPS − Estimated EPS) / |Estimated EPS| × 100. The absolute value of the estimate is used as the denominator to handle cases where estimated EPS is negative (expected losses).
What do the surprise categories mean?
Inline (±2%): effectively met expectations. Slight Surprise (±2-10%): modest beat or miss. Significant Surprise (±10-25%): notable deviation. Massive Surprise (>±25%): major earnings shock.
How are beat/miss streaks counted?
Streaks count consecutive quarters from the most recent going backward. If the latest quarter was a beat, the beat streak counts how many consecutive quarters the company has beaten estimates. The streak resets when there is a miss or inline result.
Why track earnings surprises?
Earnings surprise trends are a key factor in momentum investing. Companies that consistently beat estimates often see positive price reactions (post-earnings announcement drift). Tracking this history helps investors anticipate market reactions.
Related Tools
Pair this with the Stock Chart to visualize earnings dates on the price timeline. Use the Portfolio Rebalancer to adjust positions after earnings surprises.